Future and Prediction - Let’s Kill the Next Black Swan! - Part 5

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Future and Prediction - Let’s Kill the Next Black Swan! - Part 5

What if we try to anticipate the unpredictable? What could be the next step for companies? And for us?

· Agile Zone ·
Free Resource

In this series of articles, we will reflect on how we can predict major events. How can we predict and not be blinded? And what can we do about it? In this article, we will zoom in on what we should do next.

Impact on Enterprise Risk Management

Risk Management is a discipline that is now quite old, combining methodology, algebraic calculation, and probability calculation. It clearly appears that it does not focus sufficiently on a systemic, informational, and collective intelligence approach, which does not allow it to detect risks and refine the calculation of these risks. 

However, it is true that it is a discipline that is not in the spotlight, that does not benefit from the amount of thought it deserves, nor from its full application in all companies! 

One way to do this would be for companies to form sectoral and cross-sectoral working groups in order to pool together their forward-looking thinking. Joint work with universities and states also needs to be done because the state has a duty to protect companies from the dangers of our world, as far as possible. 

To Infinity … And Beyond!

It is clear that progress can be made in detecting and mitigating risks. There are two things that strike me. 

The first thing that strikes me is that many of us are very aware of the problems caused by rising temperatures around the world. We know that it is going to become unsustainable. Yet, we continue to buy industrial food by taking our cars. We are certainly all victims of the confirmation bias, which tells us that if the earth did not explode last week after buying bread, then it should not happen this week. 

We are all collectively critiqueable by our attitudes. All this to say that confirmation bias affects the overwhelming majority of the population! Let's not point the finger at everyone for this — we are not necessarily better individually. But let's learn to be aware of it!

The second thing that strikes me is our ability to put ourselves in “bubbles”, where the people we meet and work with are of the same social and cultural level as us. Do we think that by associating with clones, and being clones ourselves, that we're helping society move forward? 

So you who have come to the end of this article, do not forget in your personal and professional life, flee from those who look like you, and listen to the different ones. You will only be stronger and more resilient! 

And if you are a Data Scientist, rather than having fun on Kaggle, and if you want to understand how exactly a crisis can be predicted, society will be grateful to you!

Parts 1-5:

Future and Prediction - All Black Swans Look the Same! - Part 1

Future and Prediction - Hear the Black Swan Coming! - Part 2

Future and Prediction - Predict the Black Swan! - Part 3

Future and Prediction - The Struggles to Catch the Black Swan! - Part 4

Future and Prediction - Let’s Kill the Next Black Swan! - Part 5

black swan ,prediction ,risk

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