In preparation for the iOS 10 launch tonight, our data scientists crunched through over 178 billion app launches across 26 releases/patches of iOS to predict iOS 10 adoption. Last year we predicted iOS 9 adoption with a high degree of accuracy. These adoption rates are based on actual app usage data.
Based on the data, we predict that iOS 10 will cross 50% adoption after 21 days of the release, and by the end of the month over 55% of traffic will occur on the new OS. Note that ineligible devices shouldn’t play a large factor in the adoption of iOS 10. The iPhone 4S is the only device on the market with over 1% of usage that does not support iOS 10. This device, released almost 5 years ago, currently represents 1.4% of iOS traffic.
Three weeks to hit 50% adoption is no small feat — it took Android Marshmallow 11 months to become the number one used Android OS, and that only represented 35% adoption! However, Android is slowly improving in its ability to push updates more quickly. Android Lollipop, the previous release before Marshmallow, was only at 20% adoption after 11 months.
If you’d like to track the adoption rate of iOS 10, daily updates are posted here:
Here is an adoption snapshot of the current iOS releases:
Apple first launched a public beta for iOS starting with iOS 9 in an attempt to reduce the amount of bugs that are inevitably introduced after every major platform release. This certainly helps but we still saw a huge spike in crash rates. In fact, it took developers almost two months to update their apps for iOS 9 so they were as stable as iOS 8. The chart below shows the crash rate last year for the iOS 9 release:
Also keep in mind, these were developers actively addressing the issues by using our platform. If you do not have visibility into performance issues impacting user experience, we highly recommend you signup for free so you’re prepared to tackle problems that will inevitably surface with iOS 10.
iOS 10 currently has a higher crash rate than iOS 9:
We expect iOS 10 to hit widespread adoption rather quickly (unless the update causes batteries to catch on fire). With every new OS launch, both on iOS and Android, we see new issues surface that mobile teams need to address. Even if you have been testing on the iOS 10 beta already, the combination of the new OS and the new iPhone 7 models will cause unexpected issues.