But what we really need is to reduce the complexity of Java development. We need to eliminate the multi-year learning curve needed to write basic Java web applications. And neither closures, SwingX or JavaFX is going to do that.
Now I haven't done real Flash development, but I've created Flash pages. This is because Flash Professional makes it relatively easy. I've also created a Silverlight page - but again, because Microsoft Expression makes it easy.
So where is the visual designer that makes it easy to create basic Java web pages, without spending months learning an IDE, Java, Swing, Java2D, Jar packaging/signing, applet deployment and more? Why do we have a dozen ORM frameworks, XML parsers, testing frameworks and profiling tools, but no end-user visual design tool?
And no points awarded if you answer Eclipse, NetBeans or Matisse.
Update: This is what I'm talking about: DataBox.