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Modeling Earthquake Dynamics

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Modeling Earthquake Dynamics

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Since 2012--with Marilou Durand, a student at UQAM--I have been working on the seismic gap hypothesis (see e.g. McCann et al. (1978) or Kagan & Jackson (1991)), or to be more specific, on the dynamics between an earthquake's magnitude (or seismic moment) and inter-occurence durations. Our paper should appear soon in the Journal of Seismology:

In this paper, we investigate questions arising in Parsons & Geist (2012). Pseudo causal models connecting magnitudes and waiting times are considered, through generalized regression. We do use conditional model (magnitude given previous waiting time, and conversely) as an extension to joint distribution model described in Nikoloulopoulos & Karlis (2008). On the one hand, we fit a Pareto distribution for earthquake magnitudes, where the tail index is a function of waiting time following previous earthquake; on the other hand, waiting times are modeled using a Gamma or a Weibull distribution, where parameters are function of the magnitude of the previous earthquake. We use those two models, alternatively, to generate the dynamics of earthquake occurrence, and to estimate the probability of occurrence of several earthquakes within a year, or a decade.

The paper is online on https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/.

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